Geopolitics

Will Avigdor Lieberman receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

<1% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by the election on October 27, 2026, using official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Results can take until December 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

Possible results

Yes<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be…”
“If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.