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Weather

Will any hurricane make in the US in before 2027?

3% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by NOAA advisories, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 3¢ means about a 3% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Official reports from the National Hurricane Center decide it.

Possible results

  • YesThe weather event in the question happens and is officially reported.3%

    What has to happen

    Any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.97%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

On Polymarket, the first official hurricane center report showing a qualifying landfall counts, even if that report is later changed.

See all fine print
  • A later review by the hurricane center can add a qualifying storm, but it can’t take one away.
  • Hurricane season officially ends November 30, but this market counts storms through December 31.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

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The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedSettled by .gov source: nhc.noaa.gov
Fine-print risk
High (55/100)
Observed Event

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on NOAA National Hurricane Center. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Two traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy.

Next official event: NHC advisory, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (slug will-any-category-5-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027): Category 5 is defined as maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher per NHC Saffir-Simpson definitions (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and landfall occurs when the surface center intersects the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). Resolves Yes if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane as reported in official NHC advisories between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves based on the initial qualifying NHC advisory regardless of any later retraction or post-season downgrade, while later corrections are counted only if they upgrade a storm into a qualifying Category 5 landfall.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXHURRICANE / hurricane landfall contracts): Source Agency is the NOAA National Hurricane Center. Kalshi contracts specify geographic coastline bounds (including or excluding U.S. territories such as Puerto Rico depending on the series) and settle on official NHC reports published prior to contract expiration, without Polymarket’s asymmetric "initial advisory locks in Yes, post-season upgrade also counts for Yes" rule.

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Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?: explained simply · MarketWeaver