Tech

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

2% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by fe.secondmarket.com, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 2¢ means about a 2% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.2%
What has to happen
Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.98%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027.

See all fine print

If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

Price chart

Yes 2%No 98%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by fe.secondmarket.com

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the first published number

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: fe.secondmarket.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 PM ET.

Source named: fe.secondmarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for…”
“If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.”
“If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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