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Will Anthropic's be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on day?

19% say yes

Down 2 points today.

Decided by Primary exchange's official listing page, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 19¢ means about a 19% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.19%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.81%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No IPO by December 31, 2027".

See all fine print
  • If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by Primary exchange listing
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, Yes orders vs No orders in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Primary exchange's official listing page (official closing price × shares outstanding). Publishes the official close each trading day. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Primary exchange listing (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or…”
  • “If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".”
  • “If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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