Tech

Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 ()?

95% say yes

Up 11 points today.

Decided by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, under the rules.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 95¢ means about a 95% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.95%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.5%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No IPO before 2028".

Price chart

Yes 95%No 5%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo source named

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this…”
“If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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