ETFs & SEC

Will Anthropic raise less than $65B in its ?

47% say yes

Up 41 points today.

Decided by Securities and Exchange Commission, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 47¢ means about a 47% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.47%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.53%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 47%No 53%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by .gov source: sec.gov

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: SEC announcement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

The price rose 3 points in about 15 minutes.
4h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by Anthropic in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.”
“If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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