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ETFs & SEC

Will Anthropic raise between $105B and $115B in its ?

22% say yes

Down 3 points today.

Decided by Securities and Exchange Commission, by December 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 22¢ means about a 22% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.22%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.78%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says
The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by .gov source: sec.gov
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: SEC announcement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).

    48m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by Anthropic in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. Shares sold in any private placement concurrent with the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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