MarketWeaver
Log inSign up

Fed & Rates

Will Anthropic have the highest 2026?

45% say yes

Down 4 points today.

Decided by Board / , by December 31, 2026.

Polymarket lists January 1, 2027 as the end date, but the rules allow until December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 45¢ means about a 45% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.45%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.55%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used.

See all fine print
  • If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: FOMC statement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • The price fell 4 points in about 15 minutes.

    1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit…”
  • “If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets