Other
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?
3% say yes
Prices last updated 84 minutes ago. They normally update every minute.
Down 4 points today.
Decided by major news reports, by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM .
Results can take until December 31, 2027.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 3¢ means about a 3% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
Yes wins if: Any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
Possible results
YesWhat the question describes actually happens.3%
What has to happen
Any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
NoIt doesn’t happen.97%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.
The one trap
Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
See all fine print
- In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives.
- If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
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