CPI & Inflation

Will annual be 3.2% or less in October?

1% say yes

Up 1 point today.

Decided by BLS news release, by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

This market is decided by cPI release.

Possible results

YesThe official number comes out the way the question describes.1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If a CPI report is delayed by a federal funding lapse, Kalshi contracts wait for the official BLS publication up to the contract expiration date; Polymarket annual CPI contracts wait until January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET before resolving on already-published data.

Price chart

Yes 1%No 99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by .gov source: bls.gov

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the first published number

Official source: settlement runs on Bureau of Labor Statistics. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Released at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date.

Next official event: CPI release, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“Polymarket (U.S. CPI / How high will inflation get in 2026, slug will-inflation-reach-more-than-4pt5-in-2026): Annual threshold markets resolve Yes if headline Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) increases…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Kalshi

“KXCPIYOY settles on the initial published 12-month percent change in Not Seasonally Adjusted CPI-U (All Urban Consumers, U.S. city average, all items) to one decimal…”
“Kalshi (KXCPI / KXCPIYOY CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

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