Geopolitics

Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?

37% say Alisa Simmons wins

Down 11 points today.

Decided by the election on November 3, 2026, using major news reports.

Polymarket lists November 3, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until April 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 37¢ means about a 37% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (2 in all).

Possible results

Tim O'HareTim O'Hare wins the election.62%
What has to happen
Tim O'Hare wins, under the rules.
Alisa SimmonsAlisa Simmons wins the election.37%
What has to happen
Alisa Simmons wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Someone holding the job temporarily before the election doesn’t count.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 37%No 63%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Tarrant County as a result of this election.”
“If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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