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Fed & Rates

Will 4 happen in 2026?

<1% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by every Fed rate decision in the year, through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Counts every Fed rate cut in 2026, including emergency moves, through Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

The source says the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent in October 2026.

Sources checked Nov 1, 12:20 PM ET

See sources (3)

News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.

The one trap

This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)View on Kalshi

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release on this topic: "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement" (6d ago).
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Recent official releases on this topic (FED)

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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