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Fed & Rates

Will 2 happen in 2026?

75% say yes

Up 1 point today.

Decided by every Fed rate decision in the year, through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 75¢ means about a 75% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Counts every Fed rate hike in 2026, including emergency moves, through Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.75%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.25%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: Federal Reserve Board / FOMC.

The one trap

This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)View on Kalshi

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release on this topic: "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement" (9d ago).
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Recent official releases on this topic (FED)

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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