MarketWeaver
Log inSign up

Fed & Rates

Will 1 happen in 2026?

<1% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by December 31, 2026).

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

After its next meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest .

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

The source says the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent in October 2026.

Sources checked 10:50 AM ET

See sources (3)

News data from GDELT. Summary written by AI from the sources listed, then checked against them.

The one trap

This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

Price chart
-Yes chance

View on PolymarketView on Kalshi

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release on this topic: "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement" (22h ago).
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Recent official releases on this topic (FED)

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Big trades across all markets