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Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

No source named in rules · End date Jan 1, 12:00 AM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 55% on “Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch”.

It dipped 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not name an official source.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: stated conditionNo source named
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

No source named in rules
Fine-print risk: Medium (35/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 35
1.
Who settles it (official source)
No resolution source named in the rules text
2.
Deadline and time zone
Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch."
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver