US Elections

Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?

4% say yes

Up 3 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 4¢ means about a 4% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.4%
What has to happen
JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.96%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 4%No 96%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 3.8 points in about 15 minutes, from 10.9¢ to 7.1¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus6h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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