Geopolitics

US x Iran effective continues through December 31, 2026?

32% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 32¢ means about a 32% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.32%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.68%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Unless a qualifying military action has already been established by a consensus of information available from the resolution sources, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following the specified date.

Price chart

Yes 32%No 68%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 31¢ to 35¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus3h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM IRST.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
19m ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
49m ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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