Geopolitics

US x Iran Effective by November 22?

51% say yes

Down 7 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 22, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 51¢ means about a 51% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 22, 2026), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.51%
What has to happen
A continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.49%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 22, 2026.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

Price chart

Yes 51%No 49%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 51¢ to 55.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus9h ago
The price fell 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 54.5¢ to 51¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus10h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 11:59 PM IRST.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 5 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
7h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
7h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
8h ago
Trading rose to about 11 times the usual hourly amount.
8h ago
Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
9h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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