Geopolitics

US x Iran continues through November 3?

89% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 89¢ means about an 89% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.89%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.11%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.

Price chart

Yes 89%No 11%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 85¢ to 88.3¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM IRST.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.
22m ago
Trading rose to about 11 times the usual hourly amount.
52m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.””
“This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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