Geopolitics

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?

3% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 3¢ means about a 3% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Yes wins if: A diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.3%
What has to happen
A diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.97%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.

Price chart

Yes 3%No 97%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
13m ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
43m ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced…”
“Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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