US Elections

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran hold through 2027?

2% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Results can take until January 4, 2028.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 2¢ means about a 2% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.2%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.98%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency.

See all fine print

If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.

Price chart

Yes 2%No 98%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No".”
“This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives…”
“If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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