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Congress & Courts

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?

92% say yes

Up 75 points today.

Decided by Federal Register / Congress.gov, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 92¢ means about a 92% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.92%

    What has to happen

    The United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.8%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The official result comes from the government of the United States. Trusted news reports can also be used.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Register / Congress.gov. Latest FEDREG release on this topic: "Chassis and Subassemblies From China; Determinations" (2h ago).
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Recent official releases on this topic (FEDREG)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31…”
  • “The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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