Other

US imports Russian diesel by January 31?

19% say yes

Down 3 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 19¢ means about a 19% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.19%
What has to happen
Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.81%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 19%No 81%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Sun, Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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