October 2026 U.S. CPI (BLS release, November 2026)

.gov source: bls.gov · End date Nov 30, 6:59 PM ET

The short version

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Medium surprise risk: the BLS’s first published number settles it, and later revisions do not count, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by .gov source: bls.gov

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

Preliminary Print

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Bureau of Labor Statistics. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Released at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Three frequent traps: (1) YoY vs. MoM: Kalshi KXCPIYOY is 12-month unadjusted YoY, while many Polymarket monthly brackets track seasonally adjusted MoM.

Next official event: CPI release, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

U.S. CPI inflation: BLS Consumer Price Index release (12-month vs. MoM rules)

5-point rule check

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: bls.gov

Fine-print risk: Medium (35/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Medium 35

Who settles it (official source)

BLS Consumer Price Index news release (CPI-U) · https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

Deadline and time zone

Released at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Preliminary PrintInitial monthly BLS CPI news release (first print at one decimal place); subsequent revisions are excluded on both venues.

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

If a CPI report is delayed by a federal funding lapse, Kalshi contracts wait for the official BLS publication up to the contract expiration date; Polymarket annual CPI contracts wait until January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET before resolving on already-published data.

Fine print and other venues

Three frequent traps: (1) YoY vs. MoM: Kalshi KXCPIYOY is 12-month unadjusted YoY, while many Polymarket monthly brackets track seasonally adjusted MoM; (2) Strict inequality: Kalshi "> X%" requires at least X + 0.1% at one-decimal precision, whereas Polymarket range brackets include both endpoints; (3) Headline CPI-U vs. Core CPI (less food and energy).

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (U.S. CPI / How high will inflation get in 2026, slug will-inflation-reach-more-than-4pt5-in-2026): Annual threshold markets resolve Yes if headline Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) increases by strictly greater than the listed percent over the 12-month period ending with any month in 2026 per the monthly BLS CPI news release (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), reported to one decimal place (for example, 2.9%). Monthly Polymarket CPI bracket markets key off the seasonally adjusted month-over-month (MoM) or unadjusted year-over-year (YoY) first print as specified in the bracket title. Later revisions to previously released CPI figures do not count once the report is issued.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXCPI / KXCPIYOY CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. KXCPIYOY settles on the initial published 12-month percent change in Not Seasonally Adjusted CPI-U (All Urban Consumers, U.S. city average, all items) to one decimal place. Strikes use "strictly greater than" thresholds, meaning a print of exactly 3.0% settles NO on a "> 3.0%" strike. Subsequent BLS revisions or seasonal-factor recalculations are excluded.

The short versioniA plain summary built from the live price, the order book and the contract rules, the same for every visitor.

The details

The short version