GDP & Tariffs
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?
>99% say yes
Prices last updated 2 hours ago. They normally update every minute.
Up 38 points today.
Decided by Federal Register / Congress.gov, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Donald Trump, the White House, or any Cabinet member publicly and officially announces a tariff increase on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Possible results
YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.>99%
What has to happen
Donald Trump, the White House, or any Cabinet member publicly and officially announces a tariff increase on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.<1%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The one trap
The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.
Price chart
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