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US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?
14% say yes
Down 13 points today.
Decided by official U.S. government information, by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM .
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 14¢ means about a 14% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.
Possible results
YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.14%
What has to happen
The United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.86%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The one trap
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
Price chart
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Recorded moves
The price fell 7.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 19.5¢ to 12¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: U.S. government statements19m ago
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