Other

US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?

64% say yes

Down 2 points today.

Decided by official U.S. government information, by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 64¢ means about a 64% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.64%
What has to happen
The United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.36%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.

Price chart

Yes 64%No 36%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by U.S. government statements

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Official U.S. government information (President, Defense/State Departments, CENTCOM or official representatives). Updates when an official statement is issued. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: U.S. government statements (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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