Geopolitics

Over vs Under: who will win?

66% say Under wins

Down 13 points today.

Decided by the official final result.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 66¢ means about a 66% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Italy and France: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 play a match.

Possible results

OverOver wins.34%
What has to happen
Italy and France combine to score 4 or more goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time.
UnderUnder wins.66%
What has to happen
The combined second-half total is less than 4 goals.

The one trap

If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand.

See all fine print

If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price chart

Over 34%Under 66%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 9.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 42.5¢ to 33.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus3m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Thu, Nov 12, 2026, 2:45 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that…”
“Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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