Geopolitics

France leading at halftime?

<1% say yes

Down 62 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 15, 2026, 2:45 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 15, 2026, 2:45 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: France wins within the first 45 of regular play plus stoppage time.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.<1%
What has to happen
France wins within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.>99%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 15, 2026, 2:45 PM ET.

The one trap

If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand.

See all fine print

If the game is canceled, does not start by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, the market settles as "No".

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles NoNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time count; extra time and penalties are ignored, so a draw after 90 minutes settles No on a team-to-win contract. Deadline: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 2:45 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between France and Türkiye, originally scheduled for Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation…”
“If the game is canceled, does not start by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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