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MMA

Thomas Petersen vs Gabriel Lorenço: who will win?

56% say Thomas Petersen wins

Down 6 points today.

Decided when the match ends. It is scheduled for November 7, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 56¢ means about a 56% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Thomas Petersen and Gabriel Lorenço (Heavyweight, Prelims) play a match in UFC Fight Night, scheduled for November 7, 2026.

Possible results

  • Thomas PetersenThomas Petersen wins.56%

    What has to happen

    Thomas Petersen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gabriel Lorenço at UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs.

  • Gabriel LorençoGabriel Lorenço wins.44%

    What has to happen

    Gabriel Lorenço is officially declared the winner.

The one trap

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 60.5¢ to 56¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: UFC official4m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by UFC official
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on UFC official results. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Sat, Nov 7, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: UFC official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.”
  • “If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 21, 2026, this market…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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