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Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?

38% say yes

Prices last updated 61 minutes ago. They normally update every minute.

Up 16 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 38¢ means about a 38% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Syrian troops enter any part of Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.38%
What has to happen
Syrian troops enter any part of Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.62%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying entry cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date.

Price chart

Yes 38%No 62%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if Syrian troops enter any part of Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Syria, including the Syrian Ministry of Defense; however, a consensus…”
“If Syrian troop entry into the specified territory is not established by this market's resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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