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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Named source: portwatch.imf.org · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 12% on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31”.

There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: stated conditionSettled by portwatch.imf.org
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: portwatch.imf.org. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026 (deadline) Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026 (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: portwatch.imf.org (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: portwatch.imf.org
Fine-print risk: Low (0/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 0
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Named URL in rules: portwatch.imf.org · https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730,
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026 (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026."
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver