SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 27?

Named source: Pyth 1m candle · End date Oct 27, 4:00 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Explain it simply

Built from this market’s own rules and prices. It is research, not a recommendation.

1.What this market is really asking

This market asks: sPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 27?

2.Words to know

Close price: The last price in a set time window named in the rules, read from the exchange the rules name.
Share: One unit of a market. A share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Price in cents (¢): Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and work like a percent chance. 94¢ means the crowd gives it about a 94% chance.
Official source: The organization named in the rules whose report decides the result.
Settle (resolve): When a market is decided and shares pay out. Venues use “resolve” to mean the same thing.
50-50: Every share pays 50¢, whichever side it is. Markets use this when the rules say a result can’t be decided.
Polymarket: The prediction market whose prices we show. Its main site is not available to US residents.
Credible reporting: When major news outlets agree on a result. Polymarket often uses this before official counts are final.
ET: Eastern Time, the time zone of New York.
UMA: The system Polymarket uses to confirm results. If someone disputes a result, people who hold UMA tokens vote on it.
Kalshi: A US exchange that lists similar markets. It is regulated by the CFTC, and its rules can differ from Polymarket’s.
CFTC: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US government agency that oversees exchanges like Kalshi.

3.Each possible result

UpCrowd’s chance: more than 99%
What it would mean: The result is “Up”.
What has to happen: The Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 27, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.
DownCrowd’s chance: less than 1%
What it would mean: The result is “Down”.
What has to happen: The Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 27, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.

4.How the payout works

Each Up share pays $1 if Up wins and $0 if not. Down shares work the same way.

At over 99¢, the crowd gives Up more than a 99% chance.

In the special cases listed under the fine print, every share pays 50¢ instead.

Prices change all the time. This is a snapshot of what traders think, not a forecast from us.

5.Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

6.Fine print in plain English

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.
If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 27”.

It rose 44 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

Live price & chartPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, the price history and every real price move here.

See Pro

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by Pyth 1m candle

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

Market-Close Snapshot

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Pyth 1-minute candles (pyth.network). Updates continuously (oracle / index feed). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 9:30 AM ET. Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict.

Source named: Pyth 1m candle (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 27?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: Pyth 1m candle

Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Low 5

Who settles it (official source)

Pyth 1-minute candles (pyth.network) · https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD

Deadline and time zone

Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 9:30 AM ET. As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a weekend or exchange holiday (e.g. Sat Oct 31, 2026), the last regular trading close prior to that date governs. America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Market-Close SnapshotSettles on the value at the regular-session close on the stated date. Intraday touches before the close and after-hours moves do not count. Rule text: "…nday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it…"

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict. Kalshi's market-cap contracts must name an explicit reference source and expiration time in their CFTC-filed contract terms, so a photo finish can settle differently on each venue.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 27, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 27, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).