Other

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 28?

>99% say yes

Up 26 points today.

Decided by Pyth 1-minute candles, by October 28, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 99¢ means about a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (October 28, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 28, 2026 is higher than the listed price.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.>99%
What has to happen
The Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 28, 2026 is higher than the listed price.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.<1%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by October 28, 2026.

The one trap

If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

See all fine print

If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.

Price chart

Yes >99%No <1%

-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by Pyth 1m candle

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Pyth 1-minute candles (pyth.network). Updates continuously (oracle / index feed). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 4:00 PM (time zone not stated).

Source named: Pyth 1m candle (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).
18m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 28, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.

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