Other

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?

>99% say Down

Down 53 points today.

Decided by wsj.com, by November 5, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

UpThe result is “Up”.<1%
What has to happen
The official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, November 5, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
DownThe result is “Down”.>99%
What has to happen
The official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, November 5, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

The one trap

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.

See all fine print

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

Price chart

Up <1%Down >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by wsj.com

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: wsj.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Thu, Nov 5, 2026, 4:00 PM ET.

Source named: wsj.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 11 times the usual hourly amount.
29m ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
59m ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".”
“If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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