Other

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?

75% say yes

Up 14 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 75¢ means about a 75% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: It is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.75%
What has to happen
It is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.25%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 75%No 25%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 7.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 69¢ to 76.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus9h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
8h ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
9h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a…”
“If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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