MarketWeaver
Log inSign up

Other

Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 4?

72% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 72¢ means about a 72% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.72%

    What has to happen

    Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.28%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.

Price chart
-Yes chance

Loading...

Recorded moves

  • The price rose 30.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 56.5¢ to 86.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus28m ago

  • The price rose 14.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 46¢ to 60.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

  • The price rose 37.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 9¢ to 46.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on…”
  • “If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.”
  • “Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.

By joining you agree to our Privacy Policy.