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Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine agreement by January 31, 2027?

23% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by January 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 23¢ means about a 23% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (January 31, 2027), the answer is No. Yes wins if: There is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM .

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.23%

    What has to happen

    There is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.77%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by January 31, 2027.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Sun, Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

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