Fed & Rates

Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 at the October 2026 meeting?

>99% say No change

Down 97 points today.

Decided by official election authority, by October 28, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

No changeRates stay the same, so loan and savings rates tend to stay put.>99%
What has to happen
The bank leaves its rate the same.
Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps)Borrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.<1%
What has to happen
The bank raises its rate by 0.25 percentage points.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.

See all fine print

If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, the market settles as the "No Change" bracket.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by rbnz.govt.nz

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (rbnz.govt.nz). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Oct 28, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: rbnz.govt.nz (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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