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Chimaev vs Covington: who will win?

50% say Chimaev wins

Down 1 point today.

Decided when the match ends. It is scheduled for November 14, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 50¢ means about a 50% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Khamzat Chimaev and Colby Covington play a match in Real American Freestyle, scheduled for November 14, 2026.

Possible results

ChimaevChimaev wins.50%
What has to happen
Khamzat Chimaev is officially declared the winner of the match against Colby Covington at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, scheduled for November 14, 2026.
CovingtonCovington wins.50%
What has to happen
Colby Covington is officially declared the winner.

The one trap

If no official winner is designated under those rules, or if the match is ruled a No Contest, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "50-50." If either wrestler is replaced, this market will resolve "50-50." This market will resolve based on the official result announced at the conclusion of the event.

Price chart

Chimaev 50%Covington 50%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If the match ends level on points or in any form of draw, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by…”
“If no official winner is designated under those rules, or if the match is ruled a No Contest, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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