Geopolitics

Will Yashar win the third-most in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

2% say Yashar wins

Up 2 points today.

Decided by the election on October 27, 2026, using major news reports.

Polymarket lists October 27, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 2¢ means about a 2% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (15 in all).

Possible results

TogetherTogether wins the election.92%
What has to happen
Together wins, under the rules.
Otzma YehuditOtzma Yehudit wins the election.7%
What has to happen
Otzma Yehudit wins, under the rules.
YasharYashar wins the election.2%
What has to happen
Yashar wins, under the rules.
RZP-ZehutRZP-Zehut wins the election.1%
What has to happen
RZP-Zehut wins, under the rules.
LikudLikud wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Likud wins, under the rules.
ShasShas wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Shas wins, under the rules.

Show 9 more results

Joint ListJoint List wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Joint List wins, under the rules.
DemocratsDemocrats wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Democrats wins, under the rules.
Ra'amRa'am wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Ra'am wins, under the rules.
Blue and WhiteBlue and White wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Blue and White wins, under the rules.
Yisrael BeiteinuYisrael Beiteinu wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Yisrael Beiteinu wins, under the rules.
United Torah JudaismUnited Torah Judaism wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
United Torah Judaism wins, under the rules.
Amcha YisraelAmcha Yisrael wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Amcha Yisrael wins, under the rules.
NoamNoam wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Noam wins, under the rules.
Reservists and the Economic PartyReservists and the Economic Party wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Reservists and the Economic Party wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 2%No 98%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by gov.il (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (gov.il) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with gov.il deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: gov.il (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Contract moved +0.5 points in 15m (1.0¢ → 1.5¢); last-hour volume 4.7× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 1.2¢; depth ±5¢ $24 bid / $88 ask.
2h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

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