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Geopolitics

Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

63% say Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by the election on October 27, 2026, using Official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Polymarket lists October 27, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until December 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 63¢ means about a 63% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (19 in all).

Possible results

  • Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.63%

    What has to happen

    Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.23%

    What has to happen

    Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.9%

    What has to happen

    Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.2%

    What has to happen

    Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

  • Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: stated conditionNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Contract moved -0.1 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 5.5× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $0 bid / $529 ask.

    36m ago

  • Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 4.9× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 0.2¢; depth ±5¢ $0 bid / $520 ask.

    1h ago

  • Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 5.6× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 0.2¢; depth ±5¢ $0 bid / $514 ask.

    2h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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