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Geopolitics

Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

>99% say yes

Up 58 points today.

Decided by the election on October 27, 2026, using Official election authority.

Polymarket lists October 27, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

Possible results

  • YesThe person named in the question wins the election.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by October 27, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit); however, a consensus of trusted news reports may also be used if official results are not available.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 96.5¢ to 100¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: gov.il29m ago

  • The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 94.2¢ to 98.2¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: gov.il2h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by gov.il
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (gov.il). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with gov.il deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: gov.il (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 8 times the usual hourly amount).

    1h ago

  • Trading picked up (about 7 times the usual hourly amount).

    2h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset, defined as the total number of votes cast (סה"כ קולות שהוזנו) divided by the total number of eligible voters (סה"כ בעלי זכות בחירה). (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

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