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Geopolitics

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?

43% say yes

Up 8 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 43¢ means about a 43% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.43%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.57%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap may be used.

See all fine print
  • If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of trusted news reports may be used.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 44¢ to 41¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus33m ago

  • The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 48.5¢ to 44.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 10 times the usual hourly amount).

    3m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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