US Elections

Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by November 30?

49% say yes

Down 17 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 49¢ means about a 49% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.49%
What has to happen
The listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.51%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 49%No 51%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 16.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 65¢ to 48.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus25m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.”
“The resolution source will be credible media reporting.”
“Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.