US Elections

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

1% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.1%
What has to happen
President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.99%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 1%No 99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.
12m ago
Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.
43m ago
Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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