US Elections

Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027?

62% say yes

Down 13 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 62¢ means about a 62% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.62%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.38%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 62%No 38%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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