Geopolitics

Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?

<1% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The official result comes from the UN recognized government of Venezuela.

See all fine print

If no distinction is made, the market settles as the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position the market settles as “No Head of State”.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Wed, Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
12m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela.”
“The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective…”
“For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.