Other

Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

54% say yes

Up 5 points today.

Decided by earthquake.usgs.gov, by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 54¢ means about a 54% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.54%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.46%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.

Price chart

Yes 54%No 46%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedSettled by earthquake.usgs.gov

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on earthquake.usgs.gov (earthquake.usgs.gov). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Jan 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: earthquake.usgs.gov (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January…”
“If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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