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US Elections

Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

84% say yes

Down 10 points today.

Decided by history.house.gov, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Results can take until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 84¢ means about an 84% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.84%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.16%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: history.house.gov.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "Other".
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 7.6 points in about 15 minutes, from 89.2¢ to 81.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: history.house.gov11m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by history.house.gov
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on history.house.gov (history.house.gov). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: history.house.gov (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.”
  • “If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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